气象2016，Vol.42Issue(12)：1465-1475,11.DOI:10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2016.12.004
面向台风暴雨的集合预报成员优选订正技术研究及应用试验
Research for the Ensemble Member Optimization Correction Technique on Typhoon Rainstorm Forecast and Its Application Experiment
摘要
Abstract
Based on several rainstorm processes of landed typhoons in 2013-2015 and statistics,we pro-pose a real-time correction method for typhoon rainstorm forecast (also called ensemble member optimiza-tion method)using ECMWF precipitation and typhoon track ensemble forecasts and operational positioning of National Meteorological Certre (NMC)for the operational track forecast.The results show that ensem-ble statistic precipitation products are improved significantly by using the ensemble member optimization method,and the improved products give better performances than the ECMWF deterministic forecasts. Improvements of ensemble statistic products for short-range forecast are more significant than medium-range forecast,and that for extra torrential rain forecast are more significant than torrential and heavy rain forecast.Moreover,Fuse Matching average (FM)product is proposed in this paper,based on the charac-teristics and principles of Probability Matching average (PM)and fusing products.The results also show that the PM products with 10 to 15 optimal selected members give the best performance for 36 h forecast, while the threat scores of PM products can be promoted by 10% approximately for extra torrential rain forecasts.For 60 h and 84 h extra torrential rain forecasts,the threat scores of FM products can be promo-ted by above 20%,compared with the ECMWF deterministic forecasts.关键词
台风暴雨/集合预报/成员优选Key words
typhoon rainstorm/ensemble forecast/optimization of ensemble members分类
天文与地球科学引用本文复制引用
陈博宇,郭云谦,代刊,钱奇峰..面向台风暴雨的集合预报成员优选订正技术研究及应用试验[J].气象,2016,42(12):1465-1475,11.基金项目
公益性行业（气象）科研专项（GYHY201306002）和国家气象中心预报员专项（Y201501）共同资助 （）
