气象2016，Vol.42Issue(12)：1476-1482,7.DOI:10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2016.12.005
国家级格点化定量降水预报系统
State-Level Gridded Quantitative Precipitation Forecasting System
摘要
Abstract
A state-level gridded quantitative precipitation forecasting system has been built by using the fu-sion of subjective and objective precipitation inversion,precipitation statistical downscaling,time split method and other techniques.The technical structure of this system is reasonable,and its module features a clear division.It has been put into meteorological operation in the National Meteorological Center,China Meteorological Administration since June 2014,being able to generate gridded quantitative precipitation forecast products with forecast time length of 0-168 h,10 km resolution and 3 h interval.The gridded precipitation forecast of the 13th tropical cyclone “Soudelor”in 2015 is tested and the results show that, compared to the deterministic model forecasts of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecast (ECMWF)and the subjective forecasts,this forecast can better reflect the spatio-temporal distribution of typhoon precipitation,and more accurately express the severe rainstorm center in northeast of Fujian and southeast of Zhejiang.The overall effect of the gridded forecasts from April to September 2015 is verified. The results indicate that,compared to the deterministic model forecasts of the ECMWF and the forecaste-rs’subjective forecasts after inverse-distance objective analysis,the forecast products can maintain the same predictive accuracy as subjective forecasts,and meanwhile can obviously improve the degree of spatio-temporal precision of precipitation forecasts.关键词
定量降水预报/格点化/主客观融合/统计降尺度Key words
quantitative precipitation forecast/gridded/fusion of subjective and objective/statistical downscaling分类
天文与地球科学引用本文复制引用
曹勇,刘凑华,宗志平,谌芸,代刊,陈涛,杨寅..国家级格点化定量降水预报系统[J].气象,2016,42(12):1476-1482,7.基金项目
公益性行业（气象）科研专项（GYHY201306002）资助 （）
