气象2016，Vol.42Issue(12)：1506-1512,7.DOI:10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2016.12.008
T639台风预报误差与环境场变量的相关分析和回归分析
Correlation and Regression Analysis of Typhoon Forecast Errors and Ambient Variables by T6 3 9
摘要
Abstract
The correlation between environment forecast fields and track forecast errors of typhoons in Northwestern Pacific Ocean and South China Sea was analyzed by using the output data in 2009 and 2010 from T639,which is the global spectrum model of National Meteorological Centre,and the best track data from Shanghai Typhoon Institute of CMA.With regression method,a linear track error estimate model was built for the T639 typhoon track forecast errors at lead time from 24 h to 120 h with whole layer verti-cal shear of environment and typhoon circulation intensity at 400 hPa (with samples of 299,232,170,117 and 84,respectively).The estimate model was examined with the data in 2011 (with samples of 182,146, 117,85 and 61,respectively).The preliminary results illustrated that the typhoon track forecast error is positively correlated to ambient vertical wind shear,but being negative correlation with typhoon circulation intensity in each layer,which is most obvious at 400 hPa.The linear prediction model built with the whole layer vertical shear and typhoon circulation intensity at 400 hPa is able to perform estimation to track er-rors qualitatively,with a preferable result for the 24 h lead time forecast.关键词
垂直切变/台风环流强度/相关分析/台风预报误差预估Key words
vertical shear/typhoon circulation intensity/correlation analysis/estimation to typhoon track forecast error分类
天文与地球科学引用本文复制引用
黄奕武,高拴柱,钱奇峰..T639台风预报误差与环境场变量的相关分析和回归分析[J].气象,2016,42(12):1506-1512,7.基金项目
公益性行业（气象）科研专项（GYHY201006008）资助 （）
