水科学进展2016，Vol.27Issue(6)：810-821,12.DOI:10.14042/j.cnki.32.1309.2016.06.003
变化环境下东江流域水文干旱特征及缺水响应
Responses of hydrological drought properties and water shortage under changing environments in Dongjiang River basin
摘要
Abstract
Modeling the joint distribution of hydrological drought associated with non-stationary drought properties under the effects of uncertain drought events and low flow variability is difficult. Daily streamflow data from gauging stations in Dongjiang River basin, South China are used. On the basis of run theory for truncating drought events, al-terations are analyzed in terms of mean values for hydrological drought properties and their non-stationary statistics with changes in pooling and exclusion ratios. Bivariate copula functions are built for modeling the joint distribution of hydro-logical drought according to the test method of Cramer-von Mises statistics associated with Rosenblatt transfer. Further-more , a pair of designed drought values for predefined joint return periods is calculated using the equalized probability method. Changes in drought properties associated with dependence and joint distribution, as well as water shortage un-der a changing environment in Dongjiang River basin, are investigated by comparing two subseries of droughts separa-ted by the change point in low flow. Results demonstrate that the pooling and exclusion ratios set to 0. 1 and 0. 3, re-spectively, are rational. Despite positive dependence between drought properties, the bivariate and univariate models for hydrological droughts vary under different time series and variable pairs. The remarkable decrease in drought dura-tion and water shortage in the middle and lower streams is attributed to the regulation of water reservoirs, particularly the Xinfengjiang Reservoir. When the joint return period exceeds the threshold by 2 years, the designed duration peri-ods, total volumes, and daily maximum water shortage levels decrease by 63%—71%, 71% —84%, and 30%—47%, respectively. However, they still account for 12—18 d, 61. 14—90. 30 million, and 7. 150—9. 290 million m3 , respectively, provided that instream flow satisfies the water demand in Dongjiang River basin.关键词
水文干旱/干旱事件融合/干旱事件剔除/联合分布模型/变化环境/东江流域Key words
hydrological drought/pooling of drought events/exclusion of drought events/joint distribution model/changing environment/Dongjiang River basin分类
天文与地球科学引用本文复制引用
涂新军,陈晓宏,赵勇,杜奕良,马明卫,黎坤..变化环境下东江流域水文干旱特征及缺水响应[J].水科学进展,2016,27(6):810-821,12.基金项目
国家自然科学基金资助项目（51479217）；流域水循环模拟与调控国家重点实验室开放研究基金资助项目 （）
