北京交通大学学报2016，Vol.40Issue(6)：70-75,82,7.DOI:10.11860/j.issn.1673-0291.2016.06.012
通行政策导向下节假日出行结构动态演化博弈
Logit dynamic evolutionary game analysis of trip mode split caused by expressway toll-free policy
摘要
Abstract
This paper proposes a Logit dynamic evolutionary model of mode split on a bimodal net-work considering two travel modes:car and railway.Then static equilibrium,dynamic evolution trend and parameter analysis of the model are studied with the strict mathematical analysis.Final-ly,a numerical example is used to identify the mode split evolutionary routes and compare evolu-tionary stable strategies in three scenarios,including expressway toll policy,expressway toll-free policy and expressway extension.The result indicates that there is only one unique globally stable equilibrium state for the Logit dynamic evolutionary model of mode split.The adoption of traffic policies will affect the travel mode choice behavior by adj usting the congestion delay cost by car or the inherent cost difference between different modes,and the latter has a more significant effect than the former.The expressway toll-free policy has significant effect on rising the mode split by car,which can better reach the purpose of easing the capacity tension of railway.And it takes the interests of traffic managers and travelers into account at the same time.However,it may cause the highway traffic congestion.In addition,the implementation of the new policy often shows time lag effect due to the traveler's limited rationality.关键词
交通运输/出行方式选择/演化博弈论/Logit动态模型/出行结构Key words
transportation/trip mode choice/evolutionary game theory/Logit dynamic model/trip mode split分类
交通工程引用本文复制引用
林小梅,邵春福,钱剑培,张颖达..通行政策导向下节假日出行结构动态演化博弈[J].北京交通大学学报,2016,40(6):70-75,82,7.基金项目
国家自然科学基金重点资助项目(51338008) （51338008）
