北京师范大学学报（自然科学版）2016，Vol.52Issue(6)：722-730,9.DOI:10.16360/j.cnki.jbnuns.2016.06.009
气候变化影响下的流域水循环：回顾与展望∗
Impact of climate change on hydrological cycle in river basins:past,present ane future
摘要
Abstract
Study on the impact of climate change on hydrological cycle in river basins has received much attention worldwide.Mathematical statistics and hydrological modeling are widely used for impact assessment. A summary of the impact of climate change on hydrological cycle in river basins is presented in five key aspects:trend analysis of hydro-meteorological factors, performance assessment on General Circulation Models (GCMs),selection of downscaling technique,selection of hydrological model and uncertainty analysis.The Lhasa River,the biggest tributary of the Yarlung Zangbo River,has been selected for the case.It has been found that future runoff exhibited much more spatio-temporal heterogeneity due to significant increase of runoff during flood seasons and significant decrease in dry seasons;this will be a great challenge for flood control and drought relief in the study area.Systematic explanation and in-depth understanding of how climate change affects hydrological cycle in river basins,and associated key issues on impact assessment are of great importance for future water resources management.关键词
气候变化/水循环/分布式水文模型/不确定性/雅鲁藏布江/大气环流模式(GCMs)/统计降尺度Key words
climate change/hydrological cycle/distributed hydrological model/uncertainty/Yarlung Zangbo River/GCMs/statistical downscaling分类
天文与地球科学引用本文复制引用
徐宗学,刘晓婉,刘浏..气候变化影响下的流域水循环：回顾与展望∗[J].北京师范大学学报（自然科学版）,2016,52(6):722-730,9.基金项目
国家自然科学基金重大研究计划重点支持资助项目(91647202) （91647202）
