电测与仪表2017，Vol.54Issue(1)：22-26,5.
基于超椭球贝叶斯网络的配电系统可靠性评估
Reliability assessment method for distribution system based on hyper-ellipsoidal Bayesian network
摘要
Abstract
Aiming at the problem that the failure probability of components in actual operation of the distribution sys -tem can not be described by exact value , a reliability assessment method for distribution system based on hyper-ellip-soidal Bayesian network is proposed in this paper .Evidence theory is applied to obtain belief function and plausibility function of components in order to get the initial fault interval probability .Hyper-ellipsoidal model is applied to restrict the initial fault interval probability in order to get the root nodes interval probability of Bayesian network .The forward reasoning Bayesian network is applied to get the interval probability of leaf nodes in order to get the reliability indices of distribution system .The backward reasoning of Bayesian network is applied to get the posterior interval probability of root nodes in order to find the weakest part of the system .By analyzing the IEEE-RBTS 6 bus system , the method is proved to be applicable to the reliability assessment of the actual distribution system .关键词
配电系统/可靠性/贝叶斯网络/超椭球模型/区间概率/证据理论Key words
distribution system/reliability/Bayesian network/hyper-ellipsoidal model/interval probability/evidence theory分类
信息技术与安全科学引用本文复制引用
葛轶,周步祥..基于超椭球贝叶斯网络的配电系统可靠性评估[J].电测与仪表,2017,54(1):22-26,5.
