原子能科学技术2017，Vol.51Issue(1)：139-144,6.DOI:10.7538/yzk.2017.51.01.0139
考虑知识不确定性的核电厂地震易损性概率模型研究
Study on Seismic Fragility Probability Model of Nuclear Power Plant Considering Epistemic Uncertainty
摘要
Abstract
Seismic fragility model formulae considering epistemic uncertainty , w hich include fragility formula including confidence and mean fragility formula ,were the theo‐retical foundation of seismic fragility analysis for nuclear power plants .In this paper , two types of formulae derivation were conducted ,the parameters relationship of fragility formulae was analyzed ,and the relationship of HCLPF values calculated by two types of fragility formulae was discussed . The results show that the formulae derivation type based on uncertainty of fragilities enriches the connotation of the fragility formula inclu‐ding confidence . For fragility model formula including confidence , the relationship between the confidence and probability of failure follows a type of distribution ,while two types of uncertainties have different influences on probability of failure .When loga‐rithmic standard deviations for two types of uncertainties approach each other , two types of HCLPF values are approximately the same .关键词
地震易损性/知识不确定性/易损性的不确定性/中位值的中位值/参数关系Key words
seismic fragility/epistemic uncertainty/uncertainty of fragility/median of medians/parameters relationship分类
能源科技引用本文复制引用
王晓磊,吕大刚..考虑知识不确定性的核电厂地震易损性概率模型研究[J].原子能科学技术,2017,51(1):139-144,6.基金项目
国家自然科学基金资助项目（91315301，51378162，51678209）；国家科技支撑计划课题资助项目（2013BAJ08B01）；土木工程防灾国家重点实验室开放课题基金资助项目 （）
