电网技术2017，Vol.41Issue(2)：371-377,7.DOI:10.13335/j.1000-3673.pst.2016.2815
基于网络流转移分布因子的主动配电网运行风险评估及预警
Operation Risk Assessment and Early Warning of Active Distribution Network Based on Network-Flow Shift Distribution Factor
摘要
Abstract
Effective operation risk assessment and early warning is an important prerequisite to ensure safe and stable operation for active distribution network. Based on complex network theory, a novel index named network-flow shift distribution factor (NSDF) is proposed in this paper. From aspects of value and direction, NSDF is an effective linear approximation for line network flow variation considering topology and parameter changes. Taking topological time-variation, parameter uncertainties, user-side distributed generation feedback state diversity and current operation state into consideration, a normalized and linear index is raised to realize effective and timely operation risk assessment. Through substituting Monte Carlo simulation method with probabilistic sequence analysis, the operation risk assessment and early warning system proposed in this paper can traverse all possible scenarios in a very short time, thus improving assessment accuracy and rapidity effectively. Sequence form of risk assessment results can help grid dispatcher to realize key line monitoring and risk index customization, thus providing a more reliable basis for decision-making of active distribution network operation adjustment. Finally, simulation results based on IEEE 33 node system verify effectiveness and efficiency of this new method.关键词
网络流转移分布因子/主动配电网/风险评估/风险预警/概率性序列/多场景分析Key words
network-flow shift distribution factor/active distribution network/risk assessment/risk early warning/probabilistic sequence/multi scenario analysis分类
信息技术与安全科学引用本文复制引用
王钰楠,杨镜非,何也帅,王冠男..基于网络流转移分布因子的主动配电网运行风险评估及预警[J].电网技术,2017,41(2):371-377,7.基金项目
国家高技术研究发展计划项目(863计划)(2014AA051901)。 National High-Tech R&D Program (863 Program)(2014AA051901) （863计划）
