牡丹江师范学院学报（自然科学版）Issue(1)：9-12,4.
基于ARIMA和二次指数平滑模型的人口组合预测
The Combination Forecasting of Population Based on ARIMA Model and the Second Exponential Smoothing Method Model
摘要
Abstract
In this article,we construct the population at the end of year as an index,and ana-lyzethe current situation of population growth in recent years.We establish the ARIMA (3,3,1)model,the secondary exponential smoothing model and combined forecasting mod-el and use these models fitting the total population at the end of year for nearly 30 years. Using the optimal combination forecast model to predict the population for next four years,we conclude that the optimal coefficients for two models are 0.25 and 0.75.The re-search results show that the population will still be in growth at the end of the but the an-nual growth rate will decrease year by year.关键词
ARIMA模型/二次指数平滑模型/组合预测模型/年末人口总数Key words
ARIMA model/second exponential smoothing method model/combination fore-casting model/the population at the end of year分类
数理科学引用本文复制引用
张祎,朱家明..基于ARIMA和二次指数平滑模型的人口组合预测[J].牡丹江师范学院学报（自然科学版）,2017,(1):9-12,4.基金项目
国家自然科学项目(11601001) （11601001）
全国大学生数学建模竞赛后继研究(夏令营 A1401) （夏令营 A1401）
