中国人口·资源与环境2017，Vol.27Issue(2)：75-83,9.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1002-2104.2017.02.012
中国高铁建设投资对国民经济和环境的短期效应综合评估
Environmental impact and economic assessment of Chinese high speed rail investments
摘要
Abstract
The development of traditional railway can't satisfy the need of integrated transportation system for other industries,so Chinese government is expanding the high speed rail investment and programme in recent years.Combining with traditional railway, high speed rail becomes the rapid transportation network which can promote the industrial spatial distribution, accelerate industrial structure adjustment, increase the employment rate, enhance the regional allocation efficiency of labor, capital and natural resources, and harmonize development of national economy.Since Chinese government is developing high speed rail, it is important to comprehensively evaluate the influence of high speed rail's construction investment on national economy and environment.Based on the China input-output table in 2012, this paper built a high speed rail investment partially closed input-output model by using input-output technique and econometric theory which discussed the endogenous relation of 'income-consumption' of rural residents and urban reflected and residented the differences of production structure and investment structure between high speed rail and traditional railway.Meanwhile, this model can evaluate the short-term effect of high speed rail's construction investment on Chinese economy, employment, energy and environment.Results showed that: ①Every 100 million yuan on Chinese high speed rail's construction investment increased the total output 372 million yuan and GDP 121 million yuan, and gross investment increased the total output 1 937.34 billion yuan and GDP 629.60 billion yuan in 2012.② At the same time, Chinese high speed rail's construction investment also promoted the employment.Every 100 million yuan on Chinese high speed rail's construction investment added 1 084 jobs, and created 5.65 million jobs in total in 2012.It means that Chinese high speed rail's construction infuses the powerful driving force into developing economy and promoting employment.③In the environmental aspect, the early construction of high speed rail's infrastructure caused 83.42 million tons of CO2 emissions in 2012, slightly larger than investment in traditional railway.However, because of its characteristics of being clean, stable, fast, environmental advantages of high-speed rail will slowly emerge.关键词
投入产出技术/局部闭模型/高铁建设投资/短期效应Key words
input-output technique/partialy endogenous model/high speed rail construction investment/short-term effect分类
管理科学引用本文复制引用
蒋茂荣,范英,夏炎,陈全润,姚晔..中国高铁建设投资对国民经济和环境的短期效应综合评估[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2017,27(2):75-83,9.基金项目
国家自然科学基金项目"我国低碳发展战略对我国各区域在全球产业链分工的影响研究"(批准号:71573248) （批准号:71573248）
国家统计局2012投入产出研究课题重点资助项目"中国高铁投资对经济、就业和能源环境的短期效应综合评估研究"(批准号:IO12-ZD07) （批准号:IO12-ZD07）
国家自然科学基金国际重大合作项目"我国统一碳市场建立的条件、机制设计与社会经济影响分析"(批准号:71210005) （批准号:71210005）
中国企业"走出去"协同创新中心科研项目(批准号:201504YY006A). （批准号:201504YY006A）
