灾害学2017，Vol.32Issue(1)：65-71,7.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1000-811X.2017.01.012
基于最大熵-Copula方法的降雨潮位关联性分析--以广州为例
Correlation Study of Rainstorm and Tidal Level Using the Maximum Entropy-Copula Method---A Case Study of Guangzhou
摘要
Abstract
Rainstorm and tides are two factors of Guangzhou’s urban waterlogging.The correlation of the rain-storm and tides is carried out in order to provide basis for risk analysis of waterlogging in Guangzhou.The model a-bout the correlation of the annual maximum tidal level and the corresponding one-hour rainfall,annual maxima of one-hour rainfall and tidal level are established.Maximum Entropy-AMH Copula is used to build conditional water-log prevention risk model,simultaneous risk model,joint risk model and encountered risk model.The results show that the simultaneous risk probability of two kinds of combinations is less than the single variable frequency;Com-pared to the correlation between the annual maximum tidal level and the corresponding one-hour rainfall,a weaker correlation is between the annual maxima of one-hour rainfall and tidal level.In the actual engineering design,im-proving the tide level (rainfall)standard can reduce the risk probability of the two variables.关键词
最大熵/Copula函数/雨潮组合/洪涝灾害/关联性/概率/广州Key words
maximum entropy/Copula/combination of rainfall and tide/correlation/probability/Guangzhou分类
建筑与水利引用本文复制引用
黄锦林,范嘉炜,唐造造..基于最大熵-Copula方法的降雨潮位关联性分析--以广州为例[J].灾害学,2017,32(1):65-71,7.基金项目
广东省水利科技创新项目 （）
