灌溉排水学报2017，Vol.36Issue(2)：106-112,7.DOI:10.13522/j.cnki.ggps.2017.02.017
塔里木河干流流域气候变化特征及其突变分析
Analysis of Change Characteristics and Mutation on Climate in the Main Stream of Tarim River
摘要
Abstract
Based on the meteorological date from ten meteorological stations during 1961 to 2013 in the main stream of Tarim River,the changing characteristics and mutation on climate were analyzed by Penman-Monteith modem,climate inclination rate,Mann-Kendall method in the main stream of Tarim River at different timescale. The result showed that:①The increased range (0.09℃/10 a )on annual average air temperature before mutation point was lower than that after mutation point (0.13℃/10 a)and decreased range (4.05/10 a )on annual aridity in-dex was higher than that after mutation point (-0.54/10 a ),whose change tendency were"cold dry-warm moist-cold dry",and annual mutation point on annual average air temperature and aridity index were 1990 and 1976 in the main stream of Tarim River from 1961 to 2013.②The season distribution on average temperature was"sum-mer>spring>autumn>winter",and season distribution on aridity index was"winter>autumn>spring>sum- mer",and increased range (0.09 ℃/10 a,11 .42/10 a)on average temperature and aridity index before mutation point were lower than that after mutation point (-0.52 ℃/10 a,-14.01/10 a)in spring,whose change tendency were"cold dry-warm moist-warm dry".And the amplitude (0.02℃/10 a,-1.93/10 a;-0.25℃/10a,-84.48/10 a)on average temperature and aridity index before mutation point were higher than that after mutation point (-0.01 ℃/10 a,-0.05/10 a;-0.12℃/10 a,22.14/10 a)in summer and winter,whose change tendency were"cold dry-warm moist-cold dry".And amplitude (0.02℃/10 a,-56.76/10 a)on average temperature and aridity index before muta-tion point were lower (higher)than that after mutation point (0.05℃/10 a,-16.34/10 a)in autumn,whose change tendency were"cold dry-warm moist-cold moist".And four season mutation points on average air temperature and aridity index were 2003,1999,1993,1978 and 1983,1969,1963,1980 in the main stream of Tarim River from 1961 to 2013.③The annual and seasonal aridity index were greater than 16.And cold-drying were obvious-ly in annual,summer and winter,and warm-drying was obviously in spring,and cold-wetting was obviously in autumn after 2000.And decreased range(0.53 ℃/10 a,0.9℃/10 a)on average air temperature were largest in au-tumn and winter.关键词
气候变化/Mann-Kendall突变检验/流域Key words
climate change/Mann-Kendall test/river分类
天文与地球科学引用本文复制引用
牛建龙,柳维扬,王家强,迟春明,吴家林,张珊..塔里木河干流流域气候变化特征及其突变分析[J].灌溉排水学报,2017,36(2):106-112,7.基金项目
棉花生物学国家重点实验室开放课题(CB2016A12) （CB2016A12）
塔里木大学校长基金项目(TDZKQN201602) （TDZKQN201602）
国家自然科学基金项目(41561068,31260140,31371582) （41561068,31260140,31371582）
塔里木大学大学生创新训练项目(2016005) （2016005）
