气候变化研究进展2017，Vol.13Issue(1)：11-24,14.DOI:10.12006/j.issn.1673-1719.2016.053
CMIP5模式对中国极端气温及其变化趋势的模拟评估
Evaluation of the Extreme Temperature and Its Trend in China Simulated by CMIP5 Models
摘要
Abstract
Based on the observation of daily temperature data and 30 models data provided by Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5), five extreme temperature indices including mean maximum temperature (TXAV), mean minimum temperature (TNAV), heat wave duration index (HWDI), frost days (FD) and warm nights (TNF90) were calculated to evaluate simulation capability of each model in terms of spatial ifeld in climate state and the trend of extreme temperature in China. Most models can reflect the spatial pattern of extreme temperature indices in climate state. The spatial pattern of TNAV, TXAV and FD can be better simulated, as the correlation coefifcient of most models are more than 0.90, and there are good consistency between models. TNF90 and HWDI are poorly captured by models, as the correlation coefifcients are lower than 0.70 and there are large differences between models. Models also simulate the same trend change of average extreme temperature index at national scale as the observation, but most simulation results are weaker than the observation. Compared with the spatial pattern in climate state, the models simulation of trend spatial pattern for extreme temperature are not good. Thereinto, TNAV is relatively well simulated, the correlation coefifcients of a third of models are larger than 0.60. The correlation coefifcients for other indices are lower than 0.60. Based on space simulation ability, the top 5 models are IPSL-CM5A-MR, CMCC-CM, IPSL-CM5A-LR, MPI-ESM-MR and MPI-ESM-P. Based on time simulation ability, the top 5 models are MPI-ESM-P, CANESM2, ACCESS1-3, BCC-CSM1-1 and NorESM1-M. The models simulation ability ranks of space and time are in poor consistency. Nonetheless, compared with the average multi-model ensemble (AMME), simulation ability of the best multi-models ensemble (BMME) based on the space or time simulation are improved.关键词
CMIP5/极端气温/趋势/优选模式Key words
CMIP5/extreme temperature/trend/best multi-models ensemble引用本文复制引用
蒋帅,江志红,李伟,沈雨辰..CMIP5模式对中国极端气温及其变化趋势的模拟评估[J].气候变化研究进展,2017,13(1):11-24,14.基金项目
国家自然科学基金重点项目 （）
