气候变化研究进展2017，Vol.13Issue(1)：52-60,9.DOI:10.12006/j.issn.1673-1719.2016.162
1961-2014年新疆降水极值概率特征及拟合不确定性分析
Study on Probabilistic Characteristic and Uncertainty in Fitting of Precipitation Extremes over Xinjiang During 1961-2014
摘要
Abstract
The uncertainty of the probabilistic distribution of precipitation extremes over Xinjiang during 1961−2014 was discussed by using multi-function method. Results suggest that precipitation extremes easily occur in Xinjiang against the background of the climate change from warm-dry to warm-wet, which could take impact on the iftting of precipitation extremes. The uncertainty exists in the selection of functions and extreme estimations. In order to reduce the uncertainty, it’s suggested to apply the composite analysis with results of GEV, Gen. Logistic, Log-Pearson 3, Pearson 6 and Wakeby functions, when the study is conducted over the whole Xinjiang. For the single station analysis, the compositive curve graph with boundary of the extreme values is suggested to be provided.关键词
降水极值/概率拟合/不确定性/新疆Key words
precipitation extremes/probabilistic analysis/uncertainty/Xinjiang引用本文复制引用
江远安,尹宜舟,陈鹏翔,孙赫敏,樊静..1961-2014年新疆降水极值概率特征及拟合不确定性分析[J].气候变化研究进展,2017,13(1):52-60,9.基金项目
中国气象局气候变化专项（CCSF201334)；公益性行业（气象）科研专项（GYHY201206014)；山洪地质灾害防治气象保障工程项目《山洪灾害风险区划和影响预评估能力建设》 （）
