长江科学院院报2017，Vol.34Issue(3)：50-52,57,4.DOI:10.11988/ckyyb.20151012
改进的非等间距灰色模型在大坝位移预测中的应用
Application of Improved Non-equidistance Grey Model toForecasting Dam Displacement
摘要
Abstract
Traditional GM(1,1) forecasting model has such deficiencies as single optimization method and poor adaptability in fitting and estimating dam displacement, which affect the estimation result.In this paper, an improved non-equidistance GM(1,1) forecasting model is proposed by using Suffled Frog Leaping Algorithm to optimize background value and smoothing coefficient, to search for optimal definite condition and correct residual error.The fitting results and prediction accuracy of traditional model and the proposed model are compared through an engineering example application.Results suggest that the improved GM(1,1) model could enhance the prediction accuracy effectively, hence can be used in the monitoring and prediction of dam displacement.关键词
大坝位移/预测模型/改进GM(1/1)模型/混合蛙跳算法/残差优化Key words
dam displacement/forecasting model/improved GM(1/1)/shuffled frog leaping algorithm(SFLA)/optimization of residual error分类
建筑与水利引用本文复制引用
俞艳玲,郑东健,俞扬,居艳阳,方正..改进的非等间距灰色模型在大坝位移预测中的应用[J].长江科学院院报,2017,34(3):50-52,57,4.基金项目
国家自然科学基金重点项目(41323001,51139001) （41323001,51139001）
国家自然科学基金面上项目(51379068,51179066) （51379068,51179066）
国家自然科学基金项目(51279052,51579085) （51279052,51579085）
水利部公益性行业科研专项经费项目(201201038,201301061) （201201038,201301061）
江苏省杰出青年基金项目(BK2012036) （BK2012036）
江苏高校优势学科建设工程资助项目(水利工程)(YS11001) （水利工程）
江苏省"六大人才高峰"项目(JY008) （JY008）
