电网技术2017，Vol.41Issue(3)：823-830,8.DOI:10.13335/j.1000-3673.pst.2016.1388
基于马尔可夫链蒙特卡洛法的独立风光柴储微网运行风险评估
Operation Risk Assessment of Islanded Wind-PV-Diesel-Storage Microgrid Based on Markov Chain Monte Carlo Method
摘要
Abstract
This paper presents a Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method assessing operation risk of islanded wind-PV-diesel-storage microgrid. Reliability models based on Markov state probability transition matrix are established for wind and PV powers. The models also take randomness and continuity of wind and PV resource and temperature influence on PV output into consideration. Then, output of storage and diesel are determined according to microgrid operation strategy. Finally, microgrid operation risk is assessed with MCMC method with a set of risk assessment index system. Extensive simulations are carried out on a European benchmark microgrid. Microgrid operation risk is assessed form three aspects, i.e. Markov chain state number, wind/PV capacity ratio and power generation/load capacity ratio. Case study results verify effectiveness of the proposed method, providing reference for planning, designing and operating of microgrid.关键词
风险评估/风光柴储/独立微网/马尔可夫链蒙特卡洛法/可靠性模型Key words
KEY WORDS: risk assessment/PV-wind-diesel-storage/islanded microgrid/Markov chain Monte Carlo/reliability model分类
信息技术与安全科学引用本文复制引用
陆丹,袁越,杨苏..基于马尔可夫链蒙特卡洛法的独立风光柴储微网运行风险评估[J].电网技术,2017,41(3):823-830,8.基金项目
国家自然科学基金资助项目(51477041). Project Supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (51477041). （51477041）
