气象学报（英文版）2017，Vol.31Issue(1)：107-116,10.
How the "Best" CMIP5 Models Project Relations of Asian–Pacific Oscillation to Circulation Backgrounds Favorable for Tropical Cyclone Genesis over the Western North Pacific
摘要
Abstract
Based on the simulations of 32 models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5), the present study assesses their capacity to simulate the relationship of the summer Asian–Pacific Oscillation (APO) with the vertical zonal wind shear, low-level atmospheric vorticity, mid-level humidity, atmospheric divergence in the lower and upper troposphere, and western Pacific subtropical high (WPSH) that are closely associated with the gen-esis of tropical cyclones over the western North Pacific. The results indicate that five models can simultaneously re-produce the observed pattern with the positive APO phase accompanied by weak vertical zonal wind shear, strengthened vorticity in the lower troposphere, increased mid-level humidity, intensified low-level convergence and high-level divergence, and a northward-located WPSH over the western North Pacific. These five models are further used to project their potential relationship under the RCP8.5 scenario during 2050–2099. Compared to 1950–1999, the relationship between the APO and the vertical zonal wind shear is projected to weaken by both the multi-model ensemble and the individual models. Its linkage to the low-level vorticity, mid-level humidity, atmospheric diver-gence in the lower and upper troposphere, and the northward–southward movement of the WPSH would also reduce slightly but still be significant. However, the individual models show relatively large differences in projecting the linkage between the APO and the mid-level humidity and low-level divergence.关键词
Asian–Pacific Oscillation/atmospheric circulation/tropical cyclone/CMIP5 evaluation and projectionKey words
Asian–Pacific Oscillation/atmospheric circulation/tropical cyclone/CMIP5 evaluation and projection引用本文复制引用
..[J].气象学报（英文版）,2017,31(1):107-116,10.基金项目
Supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (41275078) and National Key Research and Development Program of China (2016YFA0600701). （41275078）
