水科学进展2017，Vol.28Issue(1)：49-58,10.DOI:10.14042/j.cnki.32.1309.2017.01.006
滨海城市雨潮遭遇联合分布模拟与设计
Modeling and design on joint distribution of precipitation and tide in the coastal city
摘要
Abstract
Instream flood in a coastal city usually occurs under the influence of heavy rain and high tidal level.Thus,modeling and design of joint distribution of precipitation and tide require increased attention.With Xixianghe River ba sin of Shenzhen city,Southern China,used as a case,24-hour data of heavy rain and comparative daily high tidal level are used for two sampling methods,namely,annual maximum (AM) and peaks over threshold (POT).The joint distribution model of precipitation and tide is established by using Copula functions.In this model,the difference be tween the traditional and second return periods of joint distribution of precipitation and tide is analyzed.The pair values of precipitation and tide are investigated according to two optimally designed methods,namely,equalized frequency method and most-likely weight function.Results show that the generalized normal distribution (GNO) is optimally selected to model the marginal distribution of precipitation and tide,but the differences of model parameters in precip itation are remarkable.Although precipitation and tide exhibit a weak positive dependence,Archimedean Copulas can well model their joint distribution,and the Gumbel-Hougaard Copula is selected as the optimal bivariate model.Ac cording to the equalized frequency method,the pair values of precipitation and tide designed by the second return period are greater than those designed by the traditional return period,and those designed by the POT series are greater than those designed by the AM series.However,the designed values of tide level are greater when associated with lower precipitation on the basis of the most-likely weight function.Provided that the sampling method,the joint distribu tion model,and the type of joint return period are confirmed,a reciprocal situation for a pair of designed values of precipitation and tide is manifested for given joint return periods,that is,a greater designed value of precipitation corresponds to a smaller designed value of tide,and vice versa.In ensuring a secure engineering design against flood disasters due to heavy rain and high tidal level in the coastal city,the sampling of POT and the bivariable design of the second return period are safer than those of AM and the traditional return period,respectively.关键词
雨潮遭遇/超定量序列法/Copula函数/二次重现期/设计组合值/滨海城市Key words
encounter of heavy rain and high tidal level/peaks over threshold/Copula function/second return period/a pair of designed values/coastal city分类
建筑与水利引用本文复制引用
涂新军,杜奕良,陈晓宏,柴苑苑,卿颖..滨海城市雨潮遭遇联合分布模拟与设计[J].水科学进展,2017,28(1):49-58,10.基金项目
国家自然科学基金资助项目(51479217 （）
51479216)The study is financially supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (No.51479217 （）
No.51479216). （）
