水利水电技术2017，Vol.48Issue(1)：23-28,6.DOI:10.13928/j.cnki.wrahe.2017.01.005
基于趋势及回归分析的珠三角城市群需水预测
Trend and regression analysis-based water demand prediction of Pearl River Delta urban agglomeration
摘要
Abstract
The characteristics and structure of the water consumption of the Pearl River Delta urban agglomeration in recent 10 years are analyzed herein,in which the correlations between the total water consumption as well as the agricultural,industrial,urban public,resident living,eco-environmental water consumptions,etc.and the parameters such as gross regional product,population at year-end,etc.are analyzed.The results show that different from the conclusion,i.e.the water consumption generally increases along with the increases of both the economic and population,a stronger negative correlation presents between the total water consumption of the Pearl River Delta region and the gross regional product therein in recent years.Furthermore,it also has a negative correlation to the population at year-end.In accordance with the correlation analysis result,the dualistic regression model and trend model,which take the economics and population therein as the independent variables are established,and then the water demand of the urban agglomeration is predicted.The result is compared with that obtained from the conventional itemized water consumption prediction method,which shows that the prediction accuracies of both the trend model and the dualistic regression model are better with the offset within 2％ of the actual value;i.e.the result from the trend model is most approached to the actual value,the result from the dualistic regression mode is a little bit too small,while the result from the conventional itemized water consumption prediction method is a bit too safe.If compared with the itemized water consumption prediction method,the prediction method given herein has a high accuracy and better operability,thus can be taken as a reference for the study made on the water demand prediction of the similar urban agglomeration.关键词
需水预测/二元回归/趋势分析/分项水量预测/珠三角城市群Key words
water demand prediction/dualistic regression/trend analysis/itemized water consumption prediction/Pearl River Delta Urban Agglomeration分类
水利科学引用本文复制引用
郭磊,黄本胜,邱静,黄锋华..基于趋势及回归分析的珠三角城市群需水预测[J].水利水电技术,2017,48(1):23-28,6.基金项目
广东省水利科技创新项目重点课题(2014-06) （2014-06）
广东省自然科学基金项目(2015A030313695) （2015A030313695）
