土木工程与管理学报2017，Vol.34Issue(1)：33-37,43,6.
基于多因素影响下缓冲区设置的进度风险预警
Schedule Risk Early Warning Based on Buffer Setting with Multi-factor Influence
摘要
Abstract
In the process of construction progress, deviation can be made easily if engineering project schedule affected by the uncertain factors. Considering factors of the construction difficulty and the risk bias coefficient and work complexity in the process of construction, this paper put forward the modified idea of buffer setting method in the core of the critical chain method and the progress schedule of improved critical chain. On the basis of it, this paper built the fundamental model of schedule risk dynamic early warning control by taking the schedule variance rateas monitoring index. The example analysis showed that on the premise of high completion rate the improved critical chain method schedule control can effectively shorten project planned period,using the model for real-time schedule accomplishment monitoring can efficiently and accurately provide decision information of schedule management for policymaker. Combined with the prior control and afterwards control can effectively control the negative impact of uncertainty factors effected to progress.关键词
进度风险/关键链/缓冲区/多因素联合影响/风险动态预警Key words
schedule risk/the critical chain/buffer region/joint influence/dynamic risk early warning分类
建筑与水利引用本文复制引用
黄建文,杨青青,黄琴,李朝全..基于多因素影响下缓冲区设置的进度风险预警[J].土木工程与管理学报,2017,34(1):33-37,43,6.基金项目
国家自然科学基金 (51379109) （51379109）
湖北省自然科学基金 (2014CFB670) （2014CFB670）
水电工程施工与管理湖北省重点实验室开放基金项目(2014KSD01) （2014KSD01）
