中国工程科学2017，Vol.19Issue(1)：13-20,8.DOI:10.15302/J-SSCAE-2017.01.003
2016-2035年中国经济总量及其结构分析预测
Analysis and Forecast of China's Total Economy and Its Structure from 2016-2035
摘要
Abstract
In this paper,we consider the main factors affecting the potential economic growth of China in the future and their transmission mechanism,in order to construct an economic system model and forecast the scale and structure of China's economy over the next 20 years.In the benchmark scenario,China's gross domestic product (GDP) growth rates from 2016-2020,2021-2025,2026-2030,and 2031-2035 are 6.4 ％,5.6 ％,4.9 ％,and 4.5 ％,respectively.In 2035,China's GDP scale will be 10.06 times greater than in 2000,3.99 times greater than in 2010,and 2.02 times greater than in 2020.Over the next 20 years,investment-driven economic growth will gradually change into a new stage of development that is led by consumption demand.In the face of slowing growth in developed economies and the gradual reduction of its domestic labor force,China needs to strengthen its research and education investment;improve investment efficiency,total factor productivity,and technological progress;promote the transformation and upgrading of the manufacturing industry;and accelerate the tax reform of the financial system and the reform of the income distribution system.关键词
经济预测/经济增长/结构分析/可计算一般均衡Key words
economic forecast/economic growth/structural analysis/computable general equilibrium分类
管理科学引用本文复制引用
李平,娄峰,王宏伟..2016-2035年中国经济总量及其结构分析预测[J].中国工程科学,2017,19(1):13-20,8.基金项目
中国工程院咨询项目“中国工程科技2035发展战略研究”(2015-ZD-14) （2015-ZD-14）
