中国人口·资源与环境2017，Vol.27Issue(3)：56-62,7.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1002-2104.2017.03.007
城镇化对工业能源消费的门槛效应研究——以长江经济带省份为例
Threshold effect between the urbanization and industrial energy consumption of provinces in the Yangtze River Economic Belt
摘要
Abstract
Energy is an important driving force for the urban evolution and the industrial progress.At the same time,the urbanization has changed the economic structure and the situation of the energy consumption.It will affect the construction of low-carbon city and the ecological responsibility objective achievement of environmental protection,Selecting the relevant data of 2003-2012 of 11 provinces (municipalities) in the Yangtze River Economic Belt,the threshold model was used to study the threshold effect and regional differences of the urbanization rate,per capita total income of urban residents,industrial energy investment,total industrial output value,urban population density,industrial structure,and other variables on industrial energy consumption.We focus on the nonlinear relationship between urbanization and industrial energy consumption and the corresponding regional differences.The results showed that:①There are regional differences of the urbanization development in the Yangtze River Economic Belt.The speed and the level of the urbanization development like Shanghai,Zhejiang and other provinces in the eastern region is significantly better than Yunnan,Guizhou and other provinces in central and western regions.The urbanization rates of Yunnan province and Guizhou province in 2012 were far lower than those of Shanghai and Zhejiang province in 2003,which showed there was a huge gap between provinces in the upper and lower parts of the Yangtze River.② There is a significant threshold effect on industrial energy consumption and the urbanization rate.Using the urbanization rate as threshold variable,there are two structure change points,36.9％ and 48.3％ respectively.③Before the first threshold point,the urbanization rate has a inhibitory effect on industrial energy consumption.In the early stage of urbanization,the agglomeration effect of resources and population is obvious,and the resource utilization efficiency and allocation efficiency are greatly improved.After crossing the second threshold point,the urbanization has a positive effect on industrial energy consumption.The development of industry and the improvement of the living standard made more demands on energy consumption.Proposals to promote the coordinated development of urbanization and industrial energy consumption of the Yangtze River Economic Belt are as follows:The linkage development of provinces along the Yangtze River Economic Belt should be accelerated,narrowing the difference of urbanization;the regularity of urbanization impacting on industrial energy consumption of different stages should be grasped.According to the nonlinear relationship between urbanization and industrial energy consumption,corresponding measures should be taken to guide and control the trend of industrial energy consumption.The development of urbanization and regional industrial energy consumption should be coordinated to promote the healthy development of urbanization.关键词
城镇化/工业能源消费/门槛效应/地区差异Key words
urbanization/industrial energy consumption/threshold effect/regional differences分类
管理科学引用本文复制引用
马海良,王若梅,丁元卿,张红艳..城镇化对工业能源消费的门槛效应研究——以长江经济带省份为例[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2017,27(3):56-62,7.基金项目
国家自然科学基金"基于三对均衡关系的碳排放初始权配置方法研究"(批准号:41471457) （批准号:41471457）
中央高校业务基金"城镇化对工业碳排放影响的门槛效应研究"(批准号:2016B47214) （批准号:2016B47214）
江苏省普通高校研究生科技创新项目"城镇化进程对工业碳排放影响的门槛特征和地区差异"(批准号:KYLX16_0671). （批准号:KYLX16_0671）
