中国人口·资源与环境2017，Vol.27Issue(3)：63-73,11.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1002-2104.2017.03.008
多因素驱动下的中国城市环境效应分析——基于285个地级及以上城市面板数据
Analysis on urban environmental effect driven by multi-factors of China:based on panel data of 285 prefecture level cities
摘要
Abstract
Urbanization is a major social project which has a profound impact on economic and social development,and it is also a universal rule on the whole world.The rapid urbanization has achieved positive results over the years but also accumulated some serious environmental problems in China.This paper starts the study from the domestic and foreign research on economic development and environmental pressure,taking 285 cities as objects,using adjusted STIRPAT model,analyzing the driven factors of industrial sulfur dioxide emission intensity,the industrial wastewater discharge intensity and the industrial smoke (powder)dust emission intensity in these cities from 2004 to 2013 in China.The results show that:①The adjustment of industrial structure has a significant environmental effect on pollutant emission intensity.This study shows that the variable of second industry output accounted for total GDP has a significant pull effect on industrial pollutant emission intensity.Although there shows a rational trend for the development of industrial structure in most cities,some cities which have consumed excessive resources and resulted serious environmental problems still pull heavily on the secondary industry to the economy.②With the increase of population density and the expansion of space,a phenomenon called ‘pollution transfer'occurred among different scale and different economic development cities.③In China,the problem of ‘pollution heaven'is not outstanding,foreign enterprises have significant positive environmental effects on the industrial smoke (powder) dust related industries.④In a certain range of city scale,the variable of city scale has a significant effect on the industrial pollutant emission intensity.⑤For most cities,the turning point of Environmental Kuznets Curve for the industrial pollutant emissions may have arrived and have been stayed at the stage of declining with small possibilities to rebound.But it's worth noting that the arrival of turning point of pollutant emission does not mean the arrival of the turning point of environmental quality improvement.Therefore,it's necessary to correctly understand and handle the relationship between economic development and environmental protection,leaving sufficient sustainable development of ecological capital for urbanization lagging areas,strengthening the overall environmental planning,clearing the ecological red line,arranging city industrial structure rationally,introducing green capital,improving intensive land-use of cities.And take differential assessment so as to promote green and sustainable development.关键词
城市化/环境效应/排放强度/STIRPAT模型Key words
urbanization/environmental effect/emission intensity/STIRPAT model分类
资源环境引用本文复制引用
翁智雄,马忠玉,葛察忠,程翠云..多因素驱动下的中国城市环境效应分析——基于285个地级及以上城市面板数据[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2017,27(3):63-73,11.基金项目
国家重点研发计划"全球气候变化及应对"专项项目"气候变化经济影响综合模式研究"课题——"气候变化综合评估经济模型的改进与开发"(批准号:2016YFA0602601) （批准号:2016YFA0602601）
国家社会科学基金重大项目"中国自然资源资本化及对应市场建设研究"(批准号:15ZDB163) （批准号:15ZDB163）
国家自然科学基金项目"支撑省级能源规划评估的能源需求预测模型体系研究"(批准号:71573062). （批准号:71573062）
