中国人口·资源与环境2017，Vol.27Issue(3)：107-115,9.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1002-2104.2017.03.013
中国新克强指数的构建与实证分析
Construction and empirical analysis of China's new Keqiang index
摘要
Abstract
With the ‘ new normal ’ of China's economy,Keqiang index built by British Economist has failed to reflect the whole picture of China's economy.How to objectively reflect the real situation of China's economy has become an urgent practical problem to be solved.In order to better measure the real situation of China's economic operation,according to the vision put forward by Premier Li Keqiang,which will pay more attention to employment,income and ecological environment in the future,this paper adds employment and income indicators,such as the number of employed persons at the end of the year,per capita net income of rural households,and per capita disposable income of urban households,to the existing Keqiang index.Using the relevant data of China from 1995 to 2015 and analytic hierarchy process,this paper constructs the revised version of Keqiang index-new Keqiang index,compares it with GDP growth rate and Keqiang index,and finds that new Keqiang index has more excellent characteristics in reflecting the degree of economic fluctuation and the overall operation of China's economy.Compared with the growth rate of GDP,new Keqiang index overcomes the ironing effect brought by increasing of the proportion of the service industry,and thus sensitive to reflect China's economic fluctuations,and more sensitive to unusual events.Relative to Keqiang index,new Keqiang index breaks down the leverage effect of the economic fluctuation brought by China's unbalanced development in the secondary industry,reduces the false component of economic growth,and thus more relevant with economic operation of China.In addition,relative to Keqiang index,new Keqiang index has better timeliness and relevance in the reflection of economic sentiment.Using time difference correlation analysis method to analyze the relationship between new Keqiang index and macroeconomic indicators,this paper finds that new Keqiang index has advantages in reflecting added value of the primary industry,added value of the tertiary industry,final consumption expenditure,gross capital formation,foreign trade and inflation.This study shows that new Keqiang index is a more suitable multiple evaluation indicator to measure China's economy,and it provides a scientific reference for measuring the real situation of China's economic operation.关键词
新克强指数/克强指数/GDP增长率/多元评价指标/层次分析法Key words
new Keqiang index/Keqiang index/GDP growth rate/multiple evaluation indicator/analytic hierarchy process分类
管理科学引用本文复制引用
徐强,陶侃..中国新克强指数的构建与实证分析[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2017,27(3):107-115,9.基金项目
国家社会科学基金重大项目"我国全面参加全球国际比较项目(ICP)的理论与实践问题研究"(批准号:13&ZD171) （ICP）
国家社会科学基金项目"服务业生产者价格指数(SPPI)的编制方法、国际经验及对中国的借鉴研究"(批准号:09BTJ013) （SPPI）
国家社会科学基金项目"ICT卫星账户的构建:国际经验与中国方案的设计"(批准号:12CTJ013) （批准号:12CTJ013）
辽宁省教育厅科学研究项目"基于波动性-持续性的核心CPI:测度与评估方法及中国的实证分析"(批准号:LN2016JD021). （批准号:LN2016JD021）
