中国人口·资源与环境2017，Vol.27Issue(3)：116-122,7.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1002-2104.2017.03.014
绿色低碳背景下中国产业结构调整分析
China's structural adjustment under green and low-carbon development
摘要
Abstract
As the world's biggest energy consumer and CO2 emitter,China commits,on the Paris Climate Change Negotiation,to reduce carbon intensity of GDP by around 60％ to 65％ between 2005 and 2030.In addition,Chinese government's Thirteenth Five Year Plan (13th FYP) aims to reduce emissions intensity of GDP by 40％ to 45％ cent between 2005 and 2020.Given these targets,and by using the most recent input-output table,the current study constructs a sector structure optimization (SSO) model.Authors derive the optimal sectoral structure subject to the constraints of total energy use and total CO2 emissions.Authors also estimate the maximum emissions potential at the current technological level.Results from linear programming show that:(① the optimal sectoral structure satisfies the upper limit of China's GDP growth target with an annual average growth rate of 8％.Under the optimal structure,between 2005 and 2020,emissions intensity and energy intensity falls by 46.93％ and 26.04％ respectively,both reaching the 13th FYP targets.China's total emissions could fall further by about 14％ under the premise that China's GDP grows at the lower limit rate of 6.5 ％ per annum.② The construction and transportation and storage sectors will remain vital and their shares in GDP should still increase.③ Regarding the production structure,it must shift towards the services sector.The share of the services sector should increase,especially that of the residential services.④ Under the ‘ green and low-carbon'constraints,more than half of the industry sectors' production scales should fall,especially the energy and mineral processing industries.关键词
I-O表/优化模型/产业结构调整/碳排潜力Key words
I-O table/optimization problem/industrial structure/potential carbon emissions分类
管理科学引用本文复制引用
张恪渝,廖明球,杨军..绿色低碳背景下中国产业结构调整分析[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2017,27(3):116-122,7.基金项目
国家社会科学基金项目"中国低碳经济统计数据库及其量化模型研究"(批准号:14BTJ026) （批准号:14BTJ026）
国家自然科学基金项目"企业财务制度效率的自强化机制理论与实证研究"(批准号:71572008). （批准号:71572008）
