北京师范大学学报（自然科学版）2017，Vol.53Issue(1)：80-86,7.DOI:10.16360/j.cnki.jbnuns.2017.01.014
中国碳排放的历史特征及未来趋势预测分析
Historical characteristics and future trend of carbon emission in China
摘要
Abstract
Data from Chinese National Bureau of Statistics and Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center were used to analyze changing characteristics of economics,energy consumption and CO2 emission in China.Long-term co-integrated relationship between carbon emission and socio-economic variables was constructed based on Kaya identity.Three scenarios,low-carbon,benchmark,and high-carbon scenarios,were set according to several policy reports and forecast reports to analyze future carbon emission.High-speed economic growth was found to accompany rapid growth in energy consumption and carbon emission.In the above three scenarios,the forcasted average annual growth rate of carbon emission was found to be 2.94％～3.91％ from 2013-2020,1.63％～2.60％ from 2021-2030.CO2 emission in 2030 would be 14.27、15.54、17.01Gt.It is likely that China will achieve the goal that total carbon emission reaches a peak in 2030 under low-carbon scenario.关键词
碳排放/趋势分析/Kaya/协整关系Key words
carbon emission/trend analysis/Kaya/co-integrated relationship分类
资源环境引用本文复制引用
代如锋,丑洁明,董文杰,杨梽永..中国碳排放的历史特征及未来趋势预测分析[J].北京师范大学学报（自然科学版）,2017,53(1):80-86,7.基金项目
国家重点研发计划资助项目(2016YFA0602703) （2016YFA0602703）
国家自然科学基金资助项目(41575001) （41575001）
广东省创新强校国家级重大培育资助项目(2014GKXM058) （2014GKXM058）
