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考虑实时和潜在因素的城市配电网风险评估模型和方法

林子钊 潘凯岩 周名煜 谭大帅 白恒远

电力系统自动化2017,Vol.41Issue(4):48-55,104,9.
电力系统自动化2017,Vol.41Issue(4):48-55,104,9.DOI:10.7500/AEPS20160414005

考虑实时和潜在因素的城市配电网风险评估模型和方法

Risk Assessment Model and Method of Urban Distribution Network Considering Real-time and Potential Factors

林子钊 1潘凯岩 2周名煜 3谭大帅 2白恒远1

作者信息

  • 1. 深圳供电局有限公司,广东省深圳市518001
  • 2. 东方电子股份有限公司,山东省烟台市264000
  • 3. 上海交通大学电子信息与电气工程学院,上海市200240
  • 折叠

摘要

Abstract

In order to make an accurate assessment of the risk level of urban distribution network,a risk assessing model of distribution network is established and a risk assessment method is proposed.The risk assessing model of distribution network is created in two aspects of operation risk and grid risk.The operation risk reflects the risk level of the current operation state of the distribution network,while the grid risk reflects the potential risks resulting from the defects of the grid structure.Then the corresponding risk assessing index system of distribution network is set up,and the risk quantized values and risk rating are calculated according to the index values.The comprehensive risk level of distribution network is figured out based on the above calculation results,and the variable weights and logarithm compound method are used in the process of calculation.Finally,a numerical example shows that the proposed risk assessment model is feasible and the risk assessment method is effective.The proposed risk assessment model has successfully been adopted by a power supply bureau.

关键词

配电网/风险评估/运行风险/网架风险/风险量化值

Key words

distribution network/risk assessment/operation risk/grid risk/risk quantized value

引用本文复制引用

林子钊,潘凯岩,周名煜,谭大帅,白恒远..考虑实时和潜在因素的城市配电网风险评估模型和方法[J].电力系统自动化,2017,41(4):48-55,104,9.

电力系统自动化

OA北大核心CSCDCSTPCD

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