地球学报2017，Vol.38Issue(1)：3-10,8.DOI:10.3975/cagsb.2017.01.02
能源和矿产资源消费增长的极限与周期
The Limits and Cycles of the Growth of Energy and Mineral Resources Consumption
摘要
Abstract
Based on the "S"-shaped curve of consumption and economic development of energy and mineral resources,this paper summarizes and discusses the limits to growth of per capita energy and mineral resource consumption in the process of economic and social development of developed countries and their relationship with infrastructure construction and urbanization.The paper points out that the growth of energy and mineral resource consumption is driven by the pursuit of good life.From the agricultural society through the industrial society to the post-industrial society,with the economic development,i.e.,continuous improvement of the per capita GDP,urbanization rate,infrastructure construction,and the continual increase of social wealth accumulation level,the resource consumption will gradually enter the near-saturated state.As a result of the changes in consumption structure,the consumption of iron,copper,aluminum and other minerals begins to reach the limit in the mid-industrialization stage.In addition,it leads to industrial restructuring and economic structural changes.In the post-industrial development stage,the per capita energy consumption reaches the growth limit with the service industry being the mainstay of the economic system.Emphasis on national groups or large-scale ecnomise with regard to the consumption of energy and mineral resources is the fundamental reason leading to the end of the growth cycle of global mineral resource consumption.关键词
能源与矿产资源/消费/增长的极限/周期Key words
energy and mineral resource/consumption/limits to growth/cycle分类
能源科技引用本文复制引用
王安建,王高尚,周凤英..能源和矿产资源消费增长的极限与周期[J].地球学报,2017,38(1):3-10,8.基金项目
本文由国家国际科技合作专项项目“矿产资源需求预测和可供性分析技术研究”(编号:2014DFG22170)资助.This study was supported by International S&T Cooperation Program of China(No.2014DFG22170). （编号:2014DFG22170）
