工程地质学报2017，Vol.25Issue(1)：154-163,10.DOI:10.13544/j.cnki.jeg.2017.01.021
沟道型滑坡-碎屑流运动距离经验预测模型研究
EMPIRICAL PREDICTION MODEL FOR MOVEMENT DISTANCE OF GULLY-TYPE ROCK AVALANCHES
摘要
Abstract
Prediction model for movement distance of rock avalanches has important theoretical significance and practical significance due to the characteristic of difficult detection,complex mechanism and high risk of gully-type rock avalanches.This study selects 38 typical rock avalanches induced by Wenchuan earthquake,and obtains their basic data based on the remote sensing and GIS technology combining with field investigation.Through correlation analysis,the results indicate that the influence factors of the maximum horizontal movement distance of rock avalanches(L) are landslide volume(V),the maximum vertical movement distance H,the elevation difference of slip source area(Hs),and the mean slope angle of the lower channel(ββ).Then a stepwise regression method is adapted to build optimal multiple regression model for the prediction of L.The validation shows that the multiple regression model is suitable for predicting rock avalanche hazardous zones in Wenchuan earthquake areas.The optimal multiple regression model and other internationally common-used prediction models are compared for the movement distance of landslides and debris flows.The result indicates that the forecast index system is suitable for the rock avalanches risk assessment in mountainous areas.The system considers the volume,drop height,the mean slope of the channel,with better goodness of fit index and physical meaning.关键词
滑坡-碎屑流/沟道型/运动距离/逐步回归/预测指标体系Key words
Rock avalanche/Gully type/Movement distance/Stepwise regression/Forecast index system分类
天文与地球科学引用本文复制引用
詹威威,黄润秋,裴向军,李为乐..沟道型滑坡-碎屑流运动距离经验预测模型研究[J].工程地质学报,2017,25(1):154-163,10.基金项目
国家重点基础研究发展计划项目(2014CB74470),交通部科技项目(2014-215),四川省科技厅科技支撑计划项目(2013FZ0009),成都理工大学中青年骨干教师培养计划(JXGG201507)资助. （2014CB74470）
