计算机应用研究2017，Vol.34Issue(2)：409-412,4.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1001-3695.2017.02.020
基于FOA优化混合核LSSVM的铁路货运量预测
Forecast on railway traffic volume using mixed-kernel LSSVM optimized by FOA
摘要
Abstract
It is difficult for the single-kernel least squares support vector machines (LSSVM) to describe accurately the complexity change feature of volumes in railway freight volume forecasting,which limits the improvement of forecasting accuracy.To solve the problem,this paper proposed a new forecasting method based on fruit fly optimization algorithm (FOA) and mixed-kernel LSSVM.First,it constructed the mixed-kernel LSSVM for railway traffic volume forecasting,in which the mixed kernel function that linearly combined polynomial kernel and radial basis kernel was used as the kernel function of LSSVM.Second,it employed FOA to optimize the parameters of the mixed-kernel LSSVM based on the advantages of the global searching ability and quick computing speed.Finally,it used the railway traffic volume of China to prove the effectiveness of the provided method.The results show that the value of RMSE,MAE,MPE and THEIL of the proposed method are 8 433.0,6 670.8,0.018 0 and 0.011 7,respectively,being less than the other methods.The time for searching the optimal parameters in the mixed-kernel LSSVM by FOA is 40.294 8 s,reducing 2.620 8 s and 20.701 6 s relative to genetic algorithm (GA) and particle swarm optimization (PSO) algorithm.The proposed method is applicable to forecasting short-term railway freight volumes.关键词
铁路货运量/预测方法/混合核LSSVM/果蝇优化算法Key words
railway traffic volume/forecasting method/mixed-kernel LSSVM/fruit fly optimization algorithm分类
交通工程引用本文复制引用
耿立艳,陈丽华..基于FOA优化混合核LSSVM的铁路货运量预测[J].计算机应用研究,2017,34(2):409-412,4.基金项目
国家自然科学基金青年基金资助项目(61503261) （61503261）
河北省软科学研究计划项目(15456106D) （15456106D）
河北省高等学校青年拔尖人才计划项目(BJ2014097) （BJ2014097）
河北省社会科学发展研究课题项目(2015020206) （2015020206）
河北省交通运输厅2015年科技计划项目(Y-2010024) （Y-2010024）
国家留学基金委(CSC)公派留学地方合作项目(201608130165) （CSC）
河北省高校人文社会科学重点研究基地石家庄铁道大学工程建设管理研究中心资助项目 （）
河北省软科学工程建设管理研究基地资助项目 （）
河北省重点学科(管理科学与工程资助项目) （管理科学与工程资助项目）
