交通运输工程与信息学报2017，Vol.15Issue(1)：1-8,33,9.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1672-4747.2017.01.001
基于贝叶斯网络的海外多东道国跨境铁路投资项目政治风险研究
Research on Political Risk of Chinese Overseas Multi-host-country Cross-border Railway Investment Project
摘要
Abstract
Based on the knowledge of risk analysis,this paper covers the indicator setting,the model selection and the model actual use.Considering the characteristics of a multi-host railway,an index system was set based on the host country's own political risk factors,that is,the cooperation between the home country and the host country,the political risk factors between the host country and the host country and the external political risk factors.The index of self-political risk includes seven factors,such as policy intervention risk,government corruption and inefficiency risks etc.The political risks between the host countries and between the host country and the host country were defined as national relationshiprisk.The external political risk was considered with combination of the actual form of the rail road line.Bayesian network and the some hypothetical countries were introduced to establish a network relationship of the whole railway line,and the risk status of these risk factors and the whole project were obtained.The example results of the study show that the overall political risk of the cross-border railways is acceptable and the main risk factors are concentrated on the host country's own risk components.关键词
跨境铁路投资/政治风险/贝叶斯网络Key words
Cross-border railway investment/political risks/Bayesian networks分类
管理科学引用本文复制引用
王顺洪,颜欢..基于贝叶斯网络的海外多东道国跨境铁路投资项目政治风险研究[J].交通运输工程与信息学报,2017,15(1):1-8,33,9.基金项目
四川省哲学社会科学重点研究基地系统科学与企业发展研究中心规划项目“四川省企业科技创新综合评价研究”(XQ15B06) （XQ15B06）
中央高校基本科研业务费资助项目“中国高铁海外投资的政治风险、经济风险防控机制与应对策略研究”(26816WTD01). （26816WTD01）
