南水北调与水利科技2017，Vol.15Issue(1)：67-71,144,6.DOI:10.13476/j.cnki.nsbdqk.2017.01.012
协调模式下的吐鲁番地区水资源合理供求模式
Analysis of rational supply and demand of water resources in Turpan area in the coordination mode
摘要
Abstract
System dynamics is based on the system theory.It can incorporate the water use sub-system and water supply sub-system into the water resources supply and demand system,and can be used to analyze the influence of the factors in each subsystem on the overall system.The system dynamics software Stella can predict the development trend of water supply and demand through scenario simulation.Turpan water resources supply and demand system model was constructed using the system dynamics method based on the actual situation of Turpan social economic development and ecological water demand.Four different scenarios were set to simulate the variation trend of water resources supply and demand in Turpan area in 2013-2030.Then analysis was conducted on the balance of water resources supply and demand in the region.Research results showed that in order to achieve optimal use of water resources to ensure sustainable development of Turpan area,we must intensify water conservancy construction,increase investment in water conservancy,further implement water-saving measures,and use water resources smartly and reasonably.关键词
水资源供需系统/系统动力学/吐鲁番地区Key words
water resources supply and demand syste/system dynamics/Turpan area分类
建筑与水利引用本文复制引用
伏吉芮,瓦哈甫·哈力克,姚一平..协调模式下的吐鲁番地区水资源合理供求模式[J].南水北调与水利科技,2017,15(1):67-71,144,6.基金项目
国家自然科学基金(41271168)National Natural Science Foundation of China(41271168) （41271168）
