农业现代化研究2017，Vol.38Issue(2)：307-314,8.DOI:10.13872/j.1000-0275.2017.0016
基于天气预报的参考作物蒸发蒸腾量预测模型
Forecast model of reference crop evapotranspiration based on weather forecast
摘要
Abstract
Reference crop evapotranspiration (ET0) is a basic property to calculate crop water requirement and irrigation scheduling. The weather forecast measurable variables and ET0 calculated by Penman Monteith (PM) formula were used as input to develop the BP neural network model and ANFIS adaptive neural fuzzy inference system model. The estimated value of the two models and the ET0 calculated by the PM formula was not significantly different, showing signiifcant correlation and overall degree of agreement. The two models were compared with the same data samples. The MRE value of BP-ET0 prediction was 32.13%, RMSE was 0.134 mm, andR2 was up to 0.971, which shows that the model has high prediction accuracy and good stability. Compared with the ANFIS-ET0 test results, the root mean square error of BP-ET0 model (0.134 mm/d) was smaller than that of ANFIS-ET0 model (0.188 mm/d) which means that the prediction accuracy was higher for the former model. The average relative error of the ANFIS-ET0 model (16.92%) was less than that of the BP-ET0 model (32.13%) which showed higher stability of the ANFIS-ET0 model. The input items of the two forecast models can be obtained from the current short-term weather forecast factors without special measuring equipment and the procedure is simple, thus it has high practical value and provides a theoretical basis for real-time irrigation forecasting.关键词
参考作物蒸发蒸腾量(ET0)/BP神经网络/自适应模糊神经推理系统(ANFIS)/天气预报因子/灌溉实时预报/PenmanMonteithKey words
ET0/BP neural network/ANFIS/weather forecast factor/Real-time irrigation forecasting/Penman Monteith分类
农业科技引用本文复制引用
余江斌,林剑辉,高大帅..基于天气预报的参考作物蒸发蒸腾量预测模型[J].农业现代化研究,2017,38(2):307-314,8.基金项目
北京林业大学中长期发展方向立项项目(2015ZCQ- GX-03) （2015ZCQ- GX-03）
北京市科技计划项目(Z161100000916012).Long-term Development Project of Beijing Forestry University (2015ZCQ-GX-03) （Z161100000916012）
Beijing Science and Technology Project (Z161100000916012). （Z161100000916012）
