气候变化研究进展2017，Vol.13Issue(2)：128-137,10.DOI:10.12006/j.issn.1673-1719.2016.249
IPCC共享社会经济路径下中国和分省人口变化预估
National and Provincial Population Projected to 2100 Under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways in China
摘要
Abstract
This paper focused on the projection of national and provincial population in China, using Population-Development-Environment (PDE) model under the five shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs). Population parameters in the Model PDE were set up by using the 6th national census including fertility, mortality, migration and education in China. the populations of 31 provinces including autonomous regions and municipalities in China for 2011-2100 were projected according to present situation and Two-Child Policy. The results show that China's population will raise up to 2035 and then decline until 2100 under five shared socioeconomic pathways. Under SSP3, which facing high climate change challenges, peak population shown in 2035 will be 1.43 billion. The minimum population will be found about 0.70 billion under SSP4. Under SSP1, SSP4 and SSP5, average life expectancy will be relatively high, and population aging will be serious. More than 60% of population under SSP1 and SSP5 account for higher educated population above university level. Under SSP2, the population at different ages will be similar numbers. More new-born population and adequate labor will be encouraged with a low education level under SSP3. By 2100, maximum numbers of population reaching 113 million will be found in the Guangxi province under SSP3. Except SSP3, population in the Guangdong province will have 129 million reaching to maximum numbers of population. A rapid population growth at provinces under SSP3 will attribute to high fertility, low economic level and high population outflow, comparing with other pathways .关键词
气候变化/人口预估/共享社会经济路径(SSPs)/省(区/市)/中国Key words
climate change/population projection/shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs)/national and provincial/China引用本文复制引用
姜彤,王润,赵晶,景丞,曹丽格,王艳君,孙赫敏,王安乾,黄金龙,苏布达..IPCC共享社会经济路径下中国和分省人口变化预估[J].气候变化研究进展,2017,13(2):128-137,10.基金项目
国家自然科学基金 (41571494) （41571494）
中国气象局气候变化创新团队项目 （）
