气候变化研究进展2017，Vol.13Issue(2)：138-148,11.DOI:10.12006/j.issn.1673-1719.2016.168
2021—2050年河南省夏玉米净灌溉需水量对气侯变化的响应
Summer Maize Net Irrigation Water Requirement to Climate Change in Henan Province in China During 2021?2050
摘要
Abstract
Based on the observations at 17 typical stations and the monthly outputs of 25 CMIP5 models, the impact of climate change on summer maize net irrigation water requirement in Henan province in China during 2021?2050 was assessed. Firstly, the daily maximum temperature, minimum temperature and precipitation in the future period (2021?2050) under the RCP4.5 scenario were generated by using the quantile mapping method and the weather generator BCC/RCG-WG 3.0. Then the difference between the crop water requirement and the effective precipitation in growth stages (namely, the net irrigation water requirement, NIWR) was calculated and compared to the baseline period (1961?2000). The results show that in the whole growth period, annual mean temperature and precipitation could increase by 1.8 ℃ and 3.6%, respectively, which might lead to increases in both water requirement (5.1%) and effective precipitation (1.5%). The projected future NIWR is likely to increase by 5.6%. Due to the temperature increase and precipitation decrease in sowing?jointing stage, the NIWR could increase by 21.3%. In jointing?milk maturity stage, the increased effective precipitation (3.0%) is not enough to offset the increased crop water requirement (5.1%) derived from temperature increase, the NIWR could still increase by 3.4%. However, in milk maturity?maturity stage, the NIWR decreases by 1.4% with a more increase of 8.2% in effective precipitation and a less increase (7.4%) in water requirement. The NIWR could increase in every growth stage at Sanmenxia, Mengjin, Luanchuan and Xixia stations in the western and southwestern of study area.关键词
夏玉米/气候变化/净灌溉需水量/天气发生器Key words
summer maize/climate change/net irrigation water requirement (NIWR)/weather generator引用本文复制引用
闫旖君,徐建新,肖恒..2021—2050年河南省夏玉米净灌溉需水量对气侯变化的响应[J].气候变化研究进展,2017,13(2):138-148,11.基金项目
国家科技支撑计划资助项目 (2012BAC19B03) （2012BAC19B03）
国家重点研发计划资助项目 (2016YFA0601501) （2016YFA0601501）
水利部公益性行业科研专项经费资助项目(201301039) （201301039）
河南省高等学校重点科研资助项目 (16A570003) （16A570003）
