气象2017，Vol.43Issue(2)：240-248,9.DOI:10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2017.02.012
2016年9—11月T639、ECMWF及日本模式中期预报性能检验
Performance Verification of Medium-Range Forecasts by T639 , ECMWF and Japan Models from September to November 2016
摘要
Abstract
The mid-term forecasting products of T639,ECMWF and Japan numerical models from Septem-ber to November in 2016 are analyzed and tested.The results show that the three models have good per-formance on the adjustment and evolution of the Asian mid-high latitude circulation pattern,of which the ECMWF model does the best.Regarding the forecast of the subtropical high,the ECMWF model creates very small error to the position of the subtropical high ridge,while the T639 model predicts the position of the western ridge point of the subtropical high much better.The three models all have good forecasting ability for the 850 hPa temperature change trend,and they do better for the temperature in the South of China than for that in the North.In addition,the three models have different deviations for the center po-sition and intensity of the severe Typhoon Moranti (No.1614)in the 120 h forecast,but the ECMWF model can predict the direction of typhoon track better in its later developing stage.The T639 model is su-perior to the ECMWF model in forecasting the surface high pressure of the cold wave.关键词
T639模式/ECMWF模式/日本模式/中期天气预报/天气学检验Key words
T639 model/ECMWF model/Japan model/medium-range forecast/synoptic verification分类
天文与地球科学引用本文复制引用
张夏琨..2016年9—11月T639、ECMWF及日本模式中期预报性能检验[J].气象,2017,43(2):240-248,9.基金项目
中国气象局气象预报业务关键技术发展专项[YBGJXM(2017)04-01]和国家气象中心青年基金项目(Q201603)共同资助 （2017）
