热带气象学报2016，Vol.32Issue(6)：855-863,9.DOI:10.16032/j.issn.1004-4965.2016.06.007
探讨1886-2012年期间全球二氧化碳浓度及城市化效应对于香港温度趋势变化的格兰杰因果关系
EXPLORING GRANGER CAUSALITY OF GLOBAL CARBON DIOXIDE CONCENTRATION AND THE URBANIZATION EFFECT FOR TEMPERATURE TRENDS IN HONG KONG OVER THE PERIOD 1886-2012
摘要
Abstract
Causality is an important question across many scientific fields.In climate change research,a crucial issue is whether and to what extent the change of weather and extreme events can be attributed to anthropogenic warming.Attribution analysis is predominantly using climate models,which have inherent limitations in describing the non-linear systems.We investigate this problem using an alternative approach on long-term observational data.More specifically,we examine the cause effect of global CO2 concentration and urbanization effect on Hong Kong temperature evolution using Granger causality test.Based on temperature data for Hong Kong from 1886 to 2012,we first illustrate the increasing trend of summer mean,maximum and minimum temperatures and the change in the number of very hot days and hot nights.A distributional change of daily temperatures can also be detected.The results of the Granger causality analysis suggest that both the global CO2 concentration and an urbanization effect are driving the evolution of Hong Kong's temperature,and the effect holds with different time lags.By comparing with a non-urban site,we find that the urbanization effect is likely to contribute about 40％ of the summer temperature increase.The preliminary results indicate that the approach can offer a useful alternative way to assess the cause of local temperature rises.Our analysis could be expanded to investigate on the causal effect of other greenhouse gases on extreme weather events,as well as the link between climate change and societal impacts.关键词
气候变化/格兰杰因果关系/极端温度/城市化效应/时间序列模型Key words
Climate change/Granger causality test/extreme temperatures/urbanization effect/time series models分类
天文与地球科学引用本文复制引用
于其位,刘启汉,冯志雄,邓雪娇,麦博儒,李菲,邹宇..探讨1886-2012年期间全球二氧化碳浓度及城市化效应对于香港温度趋势变化的格兰杰因果关系[J].热带气象学报,2016,32(6):855-863,9.基金项目
The Special Research Project of climate change of China Meteorological Administration (CCSF201531,CCSF201405,CCSF201306) （CCSF201531,CCSF201405,CCSF201306）
This work was supported by grants NSFC/RGC Joint Research Scheme (N_HKUST631/ 05),NSFC-Guangdong Joint Foundation of the Key Projects (U1033001),the Fu Tak Iam Foundation (FTIFL08/09.EG01) and the HKUST Fok Ying Tung Graduate School (NRC06/07.SC01). （N_HKUST631/ 05）
