热带气象学报2016，Vol.32Issue(6)：878-889,12.DOI:10.16032/j.issn.1004-4965.2016.06.009
大气季节内振荡在华南降水预报中的应用
APPLICATION OF ATMOSPHERIC INTRASEASONAL OSCILLATION IN PRECIPITATION FORECAST OVER SOUTH CHINA
摘要
Abstract
Atmospheric intraseasonal oscillation (ISO) plays important roles in the evolution of weather and climate.ISO is one of the predictability sources for medium-and extended-range forecast.Moreover,there exists close relationship between ISO and seasonal rainfall in interannual time scale.In this review,the study on the interannual variation of ISO is first introduced briefly,and the impact of ISO on the precipitation over South China and its application in operational forecast is addressed.We focus especially on the impact of MJO on the precipitation over South China,forecast of torrential rain in rainy seasons based on quasi biweekly oscillation,impact of multiple scales interaction between tropical ISO and weather systems outside tropics on severe rain,contribution of ISO to the seasonal precipitation,quantitative precipitation forecasting model for extended-range.Finally,some thinking about further ISO application and research is proposed.关键词
大气季节内振荡(ISO)/MJO/准两周振荡/华南降水/暴雨Key words
atmospheric intraseasonal oscillation/MJO/quasi biweekly oscillation/precipitation over South China/torrential rain分类
天文与地球科学引用本文复制引用
林爱兰,纪忠萍,谷德军,李春晖,郑彬,何超..大气季节内振荡在华南降水预报中的应用[J].热带气象学报,2016,32(6):878-889,12.基金项目
国家自然科学基金项目(41575043) （41575043）
国家重大科学研究计划项目(2014CB953901)共同资助 （2014CB953901）
