人口与经济Issue(2)：21-31,11.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1000-4149.2017.02.003
中国人口老龄化冲击下出生率变动的经济效果
Economic Results of the Birth Rate Changing under Shocking of Aging in China
摘要
Abstract
Aging of population has wide impact on economics in China.The 2nd-child policy and the universal second-child policy are carried out chronologically, hope dealing with aging by raising birth rate.The one-child policy was changed for dealing with aging, and the tendency of population will change.Because of the existing research based on characteristic fact of population changing, they don't give directly evidence of theory and experience for dealing with aging by raising birth rate.We take the two children policy as an opportunity, explore the economic results of raising birth rate under the shock of aging in China by dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model, We find raising birth rate can deal with aging, but the cost of raising birth rate is inflation, economic fluctuations and welfare loss.We discuss the policy based on the above conclusion.关键词
人口老龄化/出生率/动态随机一般均衡Key words
aging of population/birth rate/DSGE model分类
社会科学引用本文复制引用
马轶群,任媛..中国人口老龄化冲击下出生率变动的经济效果[J].人口与经济,2017,(2):21-31,11.基金项目
教育部人文社会科学重点研究基地重大项目"江浙沪现代经济发展模式比较分析"(14JJD790016) （14JJD790016）
山西省高等学校哲学社会科学研究项目"新常态下山西经济增长的减速治理——动力结构调整视角"(2016236). （2016236）
