水力发电2017，Vol.43Issue(2)：99-103,5.
基于可靠度分析的水库工程供水保证率核定方法
Evaluation Method of Water Supply Probability in Reservoir Engineering Based on Reliability Analysis
摘要
Abstract
At present,there is a serious deviation from the design value of water supply guarantee rate of reservoir project in China,so the water supply guarantee rate need to be approved.The method of reliability analysis is introduced into the evaluation of water supply probability of reservoir engineering,and a practical reservoir water supply project is studied and validated.The calculation results show that the method based on reliability analysis of water supply reliability evaluation cannot only emphasizes the importance of normal water supply as the traditional method,but also consider the negative effects brought by the water supply shortage.The calculation results are more in line with actual situation.For the example,the situation may indeed exist in practical water supply of ensuring the users of high design water supply reliability (like industrial user) and damaging low design water supply reliability users (like agriculture user) based on calculation and analysis results.关键词
可靠度分析/水库工程/供水保证率/核定Key words
reliability analysis/reservoir engineering/probability of water supply/evaluation分类
建筑与水利引用本文复制引用
侯保灯,肖伟华,占许珠,吴永祥,王建华,王高旭..基于可靠度分析的水库工程供水保证率核定方法[J].水力发电,2017,43(2):99-103,5.基金项目
国家自然科学基金项目(51509267) （51509267）
国家水体污染控制与治理科技重大专项项目(2012ZX07601001). （2012ZX07601001）
