水利水电技术2017，Vol.48Issue(2)：27-30,137,5.DOI:10.13928/j.cnki.wrahe.2017.02.005
基于Mann-Kendall和R/S法的水文序列变化趋势分析——以苏州市为例
Mann-Kendall and R/S methods combined-analysis on changing trend of hydrological series——a case of Suzhou
摘要
Abstract
As both Mann-Kendall and R/S methods are unable to get the past and future changing trends of the hydrological series independently,they are trialled to be combined herein.Aiming at the water resources data of Suzhou,the changing trend of the hydrological series therein is analyzed with the method of Mann-Kendall,while its fractal characteristics is obtained by R/S method for predicting the characteristics of the future trend of the water resources in Suzhou,and then the contribution ratios from the chmate change and the human activity on the change of water resources are quantitatively evaluated with elastic coefficient method.The result shows that the volume of water resources in Suzhou presents an upward trend for both the past 60 years and the future;moreover,an abrupt change occurred in 1979.The climate change is main driving factor for the runoff change with the contribution ratio of over 87％,while contribution ratio from the human activity is only 13％.Mastering the changing trend of the water resources in Suzhou can provide the decision bases for both the reasonable development and utilization of water resources and the sponge city construction for Suzhou.关键词
水资源变化/R/S法/Mann-Kendall法/弹性系数法/水文预测/开发利用/海绵城市/江苏省苏州市Key words
water resources change/R/S method/Mann-Kendall method/elastic coefficient method/hydrologic forecasting/development and utilization/sponge city/Suzhou of Jiangsu Province分类
天文与地球科学引用本文复制引用
杨金艳,赵超,刘光生,徐勇..基于Mann-Kendall和R/S法的水文序列变化趋势分析——以苏州市为例[J].水利水电技术,2017,48(2):27-30,137,5.基金项目
国家自然科学基金项目(50909084) （50909084）
苏州市民生科技项目(55201619) （55201619）
福建省自然科学基金(2015J05114) （2015J05114）
厦门市科技局项目(3502220150051) （3502220150051）
