水利学报2017，Vol.48Issue(1)：52-60,9.DOI:10.13243/j.cnki.slxb.20160595
耦合改进PERT和BBNs的堆石坝施工进度风险分析
Construction schedule risk analysis of rockfill dams based on coupling improved PERT and BBNs
摘要
Abstract
Traditional project evaluation and review technique (PERT) considers the three-time estimates whose subjectivities are too strong,and doesn't consider the effect that the correlations of risk factors implementing on the project duration,influencing the objectivity of risk assessment and the reliability of analysis results.This study proposes the coupled improved PERT-Bayesian belief networks (BBNs) model.First,the reasoning function of BBNs is used to analyze the correlations among risk factors.Second,combining the method of Triangular Fuzzy Number and Fuzzy Measure to optimize PERT and introducing the risk preference index of decision makers.Then apply the model to practical engineering,obtaining the risk preference index-period-completion probability distribution curve,which can be used to provide guidance for decisions.An engineering application result shows that compared with the traditional PERT,the method obtains more reliable simulation results and provide a reliable theoretical basis for actual construction schedule designing.关键词
心墙堆石坝/施工进度风险/风险分析模型/工期仿真/风险偏好指数-工期-完工概率分布曲线Key words
core rockfill dams/schedule risk/risk analysis model/construction simulation/risk preference index-period-completion probability distribution curve分类
建筑与水利引用本文复制引用
钟登华,闫玉亮,张隽,王飞..耦合改进PERT和BBNs的堆石坝施工进度风险分析[J].水利学报,2017,48(1):52-60,9.基金项目
国家自然科学基金创新群体基金项目(51621092) （51621092）
国家重点基础研究发展计划(973计划)(2013CB035906) （973计划）
国家自然科学基金项目(51439005) （51439005）
