中国生态农业学报2017，Vol.25Issue(4)：490-497,8.DOI:10.13930/j.cnki.cjea.160778
基于二分类Logistic回归模型的太行山丘陵区县域耕地资源潜力估算
Estimation of arable land resources potential in hilly area of Taihang Mountain based on binary Logistic regression model
摘要
Abstract
Research on the potential of cultivated land resources in mountainous area is particularly important for the sustainable development and utilization of arable lands. Using Jingxing County of Hebei Province, a typical hilly county in Taihang Mountain, as a case study, the potential for reserved cultivated land in mountain regions was estimated. A total of 13 ecological factors influencing the potential of cultivated land resources in hilly areas were used in the analysis — 5 terrain factors and 8 climate or climate-related factors. A binary Logistic regression model was built on key ecological factors to analyze the potential of arable land resources in mountain regions in the case-study area. The distribution map of potential arable land resources in Jingxing County was draw in GIS environment based on the result binary Logistic regress and the potential arable land resources in the region analyzed from the map. The key ecological factors among 13 factors that influenced arable land resources were extracted using the same binary Logistic regression model. The order of the contribution of key ecological factors was determined using the model parameter (Waldx2). The regression coefficient (β) was used to analyze the correlation between the key ecological factors and potential arable land resources in the region. Odds ratio (OR) was use to show correlation between the changes in configuration of key ecological factors and the changes in potential arable land resources. The results showed that there were 8 key ecological factors influencing cultivated land resources in the case-study area, with the importance order of relief > elevation > slope position index > trasp > coldness index > annual average temperature > drought index > slope. Terrain factors were more important indicators than the climate-related factors in estimation of cultivated land resource potential. Among 8 key ecological factors, annual average temperature and coldness index were both negatively and positively correlated with potential arable land resources, while other 6 factors were all negatively correlated with potential arable land resources. OR calculation showed that except drought index, the one unit change of the key ecological factors caused 1 time change in cultivated land resource potential. About 60400 hm2 of land resources were available for cultivation in the Jingxing County. The analysis of SPOT5 image showed 45600 hm2 of existing cultivated land. Therefore, there were 14800 hm2 of cultivatable land reserves in the county, accounted for 32.5% of the existing cultivatable lands in the region. This suggested that there still were a lot of cultivatable land reserves in Jingxing County. The results of this study provided theory basis for the development and utilization of cultivated land reserves in Jingxing County.关键词
太行山丘陵区/二分类Logistic回归模型/生态要素/耕地资源潜力/后备耕地资源Key words
Hilly area of Taihang Mountain/Binary Logistic regression model/Ecological factor/Cultivated land resource potential/Cultivatable land reserve分类
资源环境引用本文复制引用
高会,谭莉梅,刘鹏,刘金铜,李晓荣..基于二分类Logistic回归模型的太行山丘陵区县域耕地资源潜力估算[J].中国生态农业学报,2017,25(4):490-497,8.基金项目
国家重点基础研究发展计划( 973计划)项目(2015CB452705)资助 Supported by the National Program on Key Basic Research Project of China (973 Program) (2015CB452705) （ 973计划）
