物理学报2017，Vol.66Issue(6)：9-24,16.DOI:10.7498/aps.66.060501
弹性需求下的网络交通流逐日动态演化
Day-to-day dynamical evolution of network traffic flow with elastic demand
摘要
Abstract
Network traffic flow is an aggregated result of a huge number of travelers' route choices, which is influenced by the travelers' choice behaviors. So day-to-day traffic flow is not static, but presents a complex and tortuous day-to-day dynamic evolution process. Studying day-to-day dynamic evolution of network traffic flow, we can not only know whether the traffic network equilibrium can be reached and how the process is achieved, but also can know what phenomenon will occur in the evolution of network traffic flow if the equilibrium is not reached. In a real traffic system, taking day as scale unit, the day-to-day network traffic demand is variable and changes with everyday's traffic network state. The travelers' route choices are also influenced by the previous day's behaviors and network state. Then, will the day-to-day network traffic flow evolution be stable? If it is unstable, when will bifurcation and chaos occur? In this paper we discuss the day-to-day dynamic evolution of network traffic flow with elastic demand in a simple two-route network. The dynamic evolution model of network traffic flow with elastic demand is formulated. Based on a nonlinear dynamic theory, the existence and uniqueness of the fixed point of dynamic evolution model are proved, and an equilibrium stability condition for the dynamic evolution of network traffic flow with elastic demand is derived. Then, the evolution of network traffic flow is investigated through numerical experiments by changing the three parameters associated with travelers, which are the sensitivity of travelers' travel demand to travel cost, the randomness of travelers' route choices, and travelers' reliance on the previous day's actual cost. Our findings are as follows. Firstly, there are three kinds of final states in the evolution of network traffic flow: stability and convergence to equilibrium, periodic motion and chaos. The final state of the network traffic flow evolution is related to the above three parameters. It is found that under certain conditions the bifurcation diagram of the network traffic flow evolution reveals a complicated phenomenon of period doubling bifurcation to chaos, and then period-halving bifurcation. Meanwhile, the chaotic region is interspersed with odd periodic windows. Moreover, the more sensitive to cost the travelers' travel demand the more likely the system evolution is to be stable. The smaller the randomness of travelers' route choices, the less likely the system evolution is to be stable. The lower the degree of travelers' reliance on the previous day's actual cost, the more likely the system evolution is to be stable.关键词
网络交通流/弹性需求/动态演化/混沌Key words
network traffic flow/elastic demand/dynamical evolution/chaos引用本文复制引用
刘诗序,陈文思,池其源,严海..弹性需求下的网络交通流逐日动态演化[J].物理学报,2017,66(6):9-24,16.基金项目
国家自然科学基金(批准号:51308126,51378036,51308018)资助的课题. Project supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos. 51308126, 51378036, 51308018). （批准号:51308126,51378036,51308018）
