沙漠与绿洲气象2016，Vol.10Issue(6)：41-48,8.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1002-0799.2016.06.006
ECMWF细网格TP产品在北疆降雪天气中的预报性能检验
Test of ECMWF Fine Grid TP Products Forecast Performance for Snowfall Weather in North Xinjiang
摘要
Abstract
Based on the upgraded ECMWF fine grid TP products,17 snowfall cases during 2015 in north Xinjiang were selected to evaluate 12 h accumulated snowfall by using statistical and synoptic methods.Results showed that the forecast accuracy (Ts) of light snow in North Xinjiang is the highest,and heavy Snowstorm is the lowest;Ts is not always increasing with forecast time length,but false alarm rate of light snow and under-predicting rate of snowstorm are higher.False and missed alarm rate of moderate snow and heavy snow also cannot be ignored;Three kinds errors of lights snow and moderate snow is small,and change little with increase of forecast time length;On contrast,error of Heavy Snowfall is greater and increase with forecast time length.Light snow is systemic over-predicted,Heavy Snowfall is systemic under-predicted obviously,moderate snow is instability.关键词
ECMWF细网格TP降水产品/北疆降雪天气/预报性能检验Key words
ECMWF fine grid TP products/snowfall weather in North Xinjiang/test of forecast performance分类
天文与地球科学引用本文复制引用
李博渊,赵江伟,王小号..ECMWF细网格TP产品在北疆降雪天气中的预报性能检验[J].沙漠与绿洲气象,2016,10(6):41-48,8.基金项目
中国沙漠气象科学研究基金(Sqj2013008)和新疆气象局面上项目(MS201604)共同资助. （Sqj2013008）
