中国电力2016，Vol.49Issue(7)：72-76,5.DOI:10.11930/j.issn.1004-9649.2016.07.072.05
考虑不同发展情境的江苏省中长期电力需求预测
The Medium-and Long-Term Power Demand Forecasting for Jiangsu Province with Consideration of Different Developing Situations
龙禹 1王小英 1周琪 1姜楠 2罗欣2
作者信息
- 1. 江苏省电力公司,江苏南京210024
- 2. 北京清软创新科技股份有限公司,北京 100085
- 折叠
摘要
Abstract
Different weights of various indicators in different development stages are not considered in the conventional medium-and long-term combined forecasting model,and different development scenarios are not considered either in the medium-and long-term forecasting.Based on the periodicity of economy and its relationship with electric power,the electricity data are grouped according to different development stages,and two indicators including electricity error and trend error are used to calculate the weight of each single model.The entropy method is adopted to get the comprehensive weight of each single forecasting method.With a full consideration of different scenarios of future economic development and changes of electricity technology such as electric vehicle and demand response,a combined forecasting is made respectively for different development scenarios including low-speed development,high-speed development and other factors.The combined forecasting model has been applied to the medium-and long-term power load forecasting of Jiangsu Province and satisfactory results are obtained under different scenarios.关键词
电力需求预测/负荷预测/熵权法/情境分析/组合预测Key words
power demand forecasting/load forecasting/entropy method/scenario analysis/combined forecasting model分类
信息技术与安全科学引用本文复制引用
龙禹,王小英,周琪,姜楠,罗欣..考虑不同发展情境的江苏省中长期电力需求预测[J].中国电力,2016,49(7):72-76,5.
