灾害学2017，Vol.32Issue(2)：1-6,6.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1000-811X.2017.02.001
城市自然灾害前瞻性风险管理与绩效评估
Prospective Risk Management and its Performance Assessment of Urban Natural Disaster
摘要
Abstract
Urban natural disaster will become higher in the context of global climate change and rapid urbanization.The shifts as a strong emphasis on prospective disaster risk management as opposed to emergency management must be identified to manage new risk and the accumulated old risk.Prospective disaster risk management means the management activities that address and seek to avoid the development of new or increased disaster risks.The core of prospective risk management is land use plan, and the basic methods are accepting risk, constructing disaster-resistant community, avoiding risk.In addition, prospective disaster risk management is guaranteed by risk knowledge education and risk communication.In the process of risk management, performance assessment is needed of accountability for disaster risk.We introduce catastrophe theory to assess risk management performance by index system, and calculation process.At last, risk management performance value is calculated and as feedback to prospective risk management which helps urban sustainable development.关键词
前瞻性/风险管理/城市/自然灾害/风险管理/绩效评估Key words
prospective risk management/urban natural disaster/risk management performance assessment分类
资源环境引用本文复制引用
尚志海..城市自然灾害前瞻性风险管理与绩效评估[J].灾害学,2017,32(2):1-6,6.基金项目
广东省自然科学基金项目(2016A030310364) （2016A030310364）
湛江市哲学社会科学2016年度规划项目(ZJ16YB09) （ZJ16YB09）
