灾害学2017，Vol.32Issue(2)：13-17,53,6.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1000-811X.2017.02.003
分位数法对多指标干旱等级划分一致性的作用
The Effectiveness of the Quantile Method on the Consistency of the Drought Classification by Multiple Indices
摘要
Abstract
In order to assess the severity of drought accurately and carrying out reasonable drought mitigation countermeasures, a variety of drought indicators are usually used to assess the drought.However, the results derived from different indicators are often inconsistent.For example, an index identified as mild drought, while another index indicated as extreme drought.The main reason is that the thresholds of the indicators are not reasonable.The traditional threshold segmentation method has a great influence on the classification of drought level, which is short of uniform standards.We put forward an idea of drought classification using the quantile method.In the study, the threshold segmentation method and quantile method are implemented to classify the drought severities for Standard Precipitation Index (SPI) and the Percentage of Precipitation Anomaly index (PPA), respectively.Then the consistency of the drought levels are compared and analyzed.The results show that: 1) the drought levels of different indices using quantile methods have high consistency;2) Quantile method has wide applicability, which can be used for the classification of a variety of indices;3) The threshold determined by quantile method are dynamic changed with the seasonal and regional characteristics of drought, which is full of physical interpretation and statistical significance.关键词
分位数/干旱等级划分/多指标/阈值分割/一致性/标准化降水指数/降水距平百分率Key words
quantile/drought classification/multiple indicators/threshold segmentation/consistency/standard precipitation index/percentage of precipitation anomalies分类
资源环境引用本文复制引用
孙洪泉,吕娟,苏志诚,宋苏林,王亚许..分位数法对多指标干旱等级划分一致性的作用[J].灾害学,2017,32(2):13-17,53,6.基金项目
国家自然科学基金项目(51209220) （51209220）
中国水利水电科学研究院科研专项 (1402, JZ0145B592016) （1402, JZ0145B592016）
水利部公益性行业科研专项(201401036) （201401036）
