灾害学2017，Vol.32Issue(2)：26-31,6.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1000-811X.2017.02.005
粮食水旱灾害减产评价分析方法及中国粮食减产实证分析
Evaluation Method of Grain Reduction Caused by Droughts and Floods and Empirical Analysis of China Grain Reduction
摘要
Abstract
Based on the commentary of existing grain reduction evaluation analysis method, we establish a new index evaluation formula of the rate and the production of grain reduction, analyze the spatial and temporal distribution of China's grain reduction caused by droughts and floods from 1978 to 2013, set criteria for the classification levels and limits of grain reduction, identify China's major grain reduction areas and the year, and put forward proposals for China to reduce grain reduction.The results show that during the 36 years: ①China's annual grain reduction rate caused by droughts was 6.7%, including 11 years was more than 8%, was a major over reduction year;②China's annual grain reduction rate caused by floods was 3.3%, including 9 years was more than 4%, was a major over reduction year;③China's total grain reduction caused by droughts was 1.15535 billion tons, with an average annual reduction of 32.09 million tons, including 9 years over 40 million tons, was reduction years over major;④China's total grain reduction caused by floods was 564.22 million tons, with an average annual reduction of 15.67 million tons, including 7 years over 20 million tons, was reduction years over major;⑤Among 29 Chinese provinces, cities and districts, 14 provinces grain reduction caused by droughts was major and above, 10 provinces grain reduction caused by floods was major and above, 6 provinces district belonged to major and above grain reduction areas caused by droughts and floods.关键词
水旱灾害/粮食减产/评价分析方法/实证分析Key words
droughts and floods/grain reduction/evaluation method/empirical analysis分类
资源环境引用本文复制引用
肖大伟,李海成,杨德光..粮食水旱灾害减产评价分析方法及中国粮食减产实证分析[J].灾害学,2017,32(2):26-31,6.基金项目
国家社会科学基金项目"粮食主产区农民用水合作组织的成员行为选择及其激励机制构建研究"(14BJY092) （14BJY092）
东北农业大学博士科研启动基金项目"中国农业水旱灾害防治补贴政策研究"(2012RCB85) （2012RCB85）
